The New Abnormal – 2017 Global Market Outlook
Posted on December 12, 2016 in:
By Jeff Hussey – Courtesy of Russell Investments
The search for investment portfolio returns is not going to get any easier in 2017 against a backdrop of record U.S. equity prices, narrow credit spreads and low bond yields.
The United Nations has designated 2017 as the year of sustainable tourism, which I believe is a worthy accreditation in these environmentally sensitive times. It is a theme that investors would do well to follow, in our view. The search for returns is not going to get any easier against a backdrop of record U.S. equity prices, narrow credit spreads and low bond yields. We need to be tourists in the investment sense and venture further afield in our search for investment returns.
The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has thrown an extra element of uncertainty into our outlook. We believe markets are assuming that the new administration will have a policy mix that will boost growth, equities, and the U.S. dollar, as well as push the Fed into more tightening. But there are large uncertainties about the president-elect’s views. Some of his campaign comments about withdrawing from trade deals and imposing tariffs on China, if enacted, have the potential to send the global economy into a renewed downturn. The post-election optimism driving markets in late 2016 could quickly reverse.
With this backdrop, we would respond in three ways: (1) diversify sources of returns, (2) use a robust dynamic asset allocation process to guide tactical positioning, and (3) seek effective implementation capabilities.
Russell Investments Canada Limited has, for example, incorporated strategies such as convertible bonds into some of the firm’s multi-asset portfolios. These assets potentially reduce exposure to rising interest rates while still maintaining the potential for growth. With emerging markets hammered after the U.S. election on Nov. 8, 2016, we think there are opportunities in select countries and their equity, bond and currency markets.
We’re also making extra use of factor-based strategies. For example, our Conscious Currency™ strategy uses the factor constituents of value, carry and trend to help provide diversified returns. We believe that dynamically managing currency exposures will be essential in 2017 with policy-related volatility in these markets. Our portfolio managers have widened their direct investment capabilities to gain access to equity factors such as growth, value, quality, volatility, momentum and size.
And our implementation capabilities allow us to seek opportunities in derivative markets, most importantly by taking out downside protection when the markets are overly optimistic.
The tactical process used by our global team of investment strategists is based on the building blocks of business cycle, value and sentiment. This process has helped us navigate markets in recent years, balancing concerns about valuations against positive cycle views and sentiment shifts between extremes of overbought and oversold.
2017 offers few certainties and plenty of potential risks. We believe investors will need to take a grand tour of the returns landscape with a good map to arrive at some rewarding portfolio destinations.