The Data Is Starting To Confirm Our View

In this short video, we highlight our view on the most recent economic and earnings guidance data that reinforces the low probability the Fed could generate a positive outcome despite:

• Causing the sharpest market rate rise in a generation
• into a historically levered system
• with bloated inventories
• elevated costs
• slackening demand  

That said, the market is already down over 20%, the Nasdaq is down 30%, interest rates are sharply lower, and the sentiment is historically negative.  That opens the possibility of a sharp ramp at any time, although we see no reason to make a major move until we have a clear signalling change from the Fed.

Watch the video